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Investorideas.com (www.investorideas.com
Newswire) a go-to platform for big investing ideas, including gold and
silver stocks issues market commentary from deVere Group.
Investors will now be eyeing Venezuela as a once-sealed economy looks
likely to reopen to global capital, creating a “rare convergence
of political change, asset repricing, and reconstruction demand that
is already reshaping emerging-market strategies”.
This is the assessment of the CEO of one of the world’s largest
independent financial advisory organizations following
Washington’s strike over the weekend which removed the President
in Caracas.
Nigel Green of deVere Group says Venezuela is going to move
“abruptly from the periphery of investment thinking to the
centre of it”, following the removal of Nicolás Maduro
and clear signals from Washington that the country’s economic
reintegration is no longer theoretical.
“Markets respond when isolation gives way to access,” says
Nigel Green. “Venezuela has spent years cut off from capital,
expertise, and trade. The moment investors believe that wall is coming
down, valuations start to reset.”
The scale of what is at stake explains the urgency. Venezuela holds
the world’s largest proven oil reserves, estimated at more than
300 billion barrels, alongside substantial deposits of gold, iron ore,
bauxite, and strategic minerals.
Yet years of sanctions, chronic underinvestment, and operational
collapse have left infrastructure across energy, power, transport, and
industry in severe disrepair.
Oil production, which peaked at more than 3.4 million barrels a day in
the late 1990s, remains well under one million barrels a day today.
Power generation is unreliable, ports are degraded, and pipelines,
refineries, and housing stock require extensive rebuilding.
For investors accustomed to crowded trades in developed markets, the
contrast is stark.
“This is an economy priced for failure but endowed for
recovery,” Nigel Green says. “When assets have been
excluded for this long, even modest improvements in governance and
access can produce outsized market reactions.”
That repricing has already begun. Venezuelan sovereign and
state-linked debt, long written off by global investors, has rallied
sharply over the past year as expectations shift from permanent
default toward restructuring and normalization.
Distressed bonds that once traded deep in the teens have moved
materially higher, reflecting a reassessment of long-term recovery
prospects.
“Debt markets tend to move first,” says Nigel Green.
“They’re signalling that the probability of Venezuela
re-entering the financial system has risen.”
He says early interest is focused on several fronts. Public market
exposure to companies positioned to benefit from rising resource
output is drawing attention. Private credit is emerging as a critical
channel, offering financing to local firms starved of capital.
Infrastructure investment, particularly in energy, power generation,
ports, and logistics, is viewed as unavoidable if production is to
recover.
“The rebuilding effort will require vast sums of capital. Energy
alone demands sustained investment measured in the tens and hundreds
of billions over time,” notes the deVere CEO.
He cautions that risk remains elevated.
“Political stability is still being tested, legal frameworks
need restoration, and security concerns cannot be dismissed.
“Investor protection, contract enforceability, and asset control
will be decisive factors in determining which capital participates and
at what scale
“This is not an indiscriminate opportunity. Returns will depend
on structure, jurisdiction, and local insight. Investors who treat
Venezuela as a headline trade will be disappointed.”
Those constraints help explain why larger institutions such as pension
funds and sovereign wealth vehicles may move more slowly. Their
mandates and risk thresholds require clarity that may take time to
emerge.
“By contrast, hedge funds, family offices, and specialist
investors are expected to already be positioning, seeking exposure
before broader participation lifts prices further.
“Timing matters,” says Nigel Green. “History shows
that the largest gains tend to accrue before full consensus
forms.”
Beyond Venezuela itself, he says the implications extend across global
energy and emerging markets. Any sustained recovery in Venezuelan
output would alter crude supply dynamics, influence regional trade
balances, and shift capital flows across Latin America.
“Markets price the future, not the past,” Nigel Green
says. “If Venezuela succeeds in restoring production and
attracting capital, the effects will be felt far beyond its
borders.”
He concludes. “Venezuela’s return to investor focus
underscores a wider reality that’s going to shape markets in
2026: geopolitics is once again going to be a dominant driver of
capital allocation.”
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