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stocks issues market commentary from deVere Group.
OPEC’s grip on global oil markets could be facing its most
serious test in years as US refiners move to seize control of
Venezuelan crude, asserts the CEO of global financial advisory giant
deVere Group.
Nigel Green’s analysis comes as Washington ramps up asserting
authority over Venezuela’s oil sector, and as American refiners
are seen to be positioning themselves to become the new power brokers
in a market long dominated by producer alliances.
Oil traders and US refiners are scrambling to secure Venezuelan supply
after reports that Chevron is seeking a wider operating licence and
Citgo could resume purchases of crude.
The deVere chief executive comments: “US firms are demanding
explicit guarantees from Washington before committing fresh capital,
while Chinese oil companies are asking Beijing how to protect their
interests.
“The message is unmistakable. Control of Venezuelan oil is
shifting rapidly from boardrooms to governments.”
If the Trump administration expands permissions, the impact will be
immediate and structural. US Gulf Coast refineries are among the few
in the world designed to process Venezuela’s heavy sour crude
efficiently.
Years of sanctions have kept those barrels sidelined, forcing refiners
to rely on alternative heavy grades that are now increasingly scarce.
Sanctions on Iran and Russia have tightened the market further,
leaving refiners competing for a shrinking pool of suitable feedstock.
“Guaranteed access to Venezuelan crude would change that
overnight. For US refiners, it would mean lower input costs,
stronger margins, and a strategic advantage competitors cannot
easily replicate.
“For the global market, it would mean a profound shift in
where pricing power sits.”
For decades, OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries)
has shaped oil markets through coordinated production decisions.
Nigel Green says: “This influence remains significant, but it
weakens the moment access to supply becomes governed less by cartel
policy and more by political authorization. OPEC controls barrels.
Washington controls licences. When those two forces collide, the
balance of power is bound to start to tilt.
“Venezuelan oil now sits at the centre of that
collision.”
The country holds the world’s largest proven crude reserves, yet
its output remains constrained by sanctions, infrastructure decay, and
diplomatic isolation.
“Any move by the US to loosen restrictions would instantly
elevate Venezuelan barrels from distressed supply to strategic
commodity. Companies allowed to lift that oil gain more than
commercial and geopolitical advantage.”
This is why Chinese oil firms are seeking guidance from Beijing. Their
concern is not theoretical. It reflects a recognition that access to
Venezuelan energy is becoming a political contest rather than a market
transaction.
“If Washington determines who can buy, ship, and refine
Venezuelan crude, then global energy flows begin to follow
diplomatic lines.”
The deVere CEO notes: “For OPEC, this creates an uncomfortable
reality. The cartel can still adjust output targets, but it cannot
override US sanctions policy; it can’t dictate licensing
decisions; and it can’t prevent American refiners from
consolidating influence if regulatory clearance is granted.
“This doesn’t mean OPEC becomes irrelevant. It means its
dominance faces a rival force it cannot control.”
For markets, this marks the return of energy power politics in its
most modern form.
“Not through embargoes or price wars, but through licences,
waivers, and diplomatic leverage. The battlefield shifts from
production quotas to regulatory desks in Washington.”
He concludes: “If Chevron secures broader permissions and
Citgo resumes purchases, the shift will be unmistakable.
“US refiners will move from being price-takers in a
cartel-driven system to gatekeepers in a politically governed one.
“OPEC will still matter, but it will no longer stand alone at
the centre of oil market power. This matters for investors
globally.”
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