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Newswire) Silver has crossed $100 for the first time in history. That
sentence alone should tell you everything about where we are.
When I published Issue #5 of the
Silver Catalyst
on January 13, silver had just surged above $88 following the
Department of Justice’s unprecedented investigation into Fed Chair
Jerome Powell. In the two weeks since, the metal tested $100 on
January 23, retreated briefly, and on January 26 exploded to $117.75
intraday as gold shattered the $5,000 barrier for the first time in
history.
If you positioned in
silver throughout 2025, you’ve now witnessed a move that will be discussed in financial
history books for generations. A 290%+ gain year-over-year. From $29
to $117. The gold-silver ratio has compressed from 100:1 in April 2025
to approximately 45:1 today. That compression alone represents one of
the most dramatic precious metals realignments in modern markets.
The catalyst? Some of the forces identified in
“Silver Rising”
have not merely materialized. They have converged with an intensity
that exceeded even the most bullish scenarios. China’s export
restrictions have fragmented global supply. COMEX inventories are
hemorrhaging. Physical premiums in Shanghai reached $5-8 per ounce
over Western benchmarks. The Federal Reserve’s independence is under
direct assault. And industrial demand from solar, EVs, AI,
semiconductors, 5G infrastructure, and space technology continues
consuming silver faster than miners can extract it from the earth.
This is the fifth consecutive year of structural deficits,
projected
to extend into a sixth. The cumulative drain has now approached 820
million ounces since 2021. The math has become destiny.
The Two Weeks That Made History
In the span of just 14 days, the silver market experienced:
- The first $100+ print in silver history (January 23)
- Gold breaking $5,000 for the first time (January 26)
- COMEX registered inventory falling to 113.27 million ounces
- The gold-silver ratio compressing to 45:1 (lowest since 2011)
- Sprott PSLV doubling its ATM program to $2 billion
-
Shanghai physical premiums reaching $5-8/oz over Western benchmarks -
44 Indian trading firms in Rajkot declaring insolvency from being
caught short
The structural forces driving silver’s transformation have not merely
accelerated. They have reached a point where paper and physical
markets can no longer maintain the pretense of unity.
There are ten Deep Dives that I’m discussing in this week’s premium
Silver Catalyst
issue, and in this free article, I’ll discuss three of them.
The Data
The January 23-26 COMEX warehouse report reveals continuing inventory
stress:
The Context
During the first week of January 2026, COMEX warehouses experienced a
33.45-million-ounce withdrawal in just seven days,
representing 26% of registered inventory vanishing in a single week.
January 7 data revealed JP Morgan issuing 99% of 8.1 million ounces in
delivery notices through 1,624 contracts. What made this unusual?
January open interest increased by 1,431 contracts despite
these deliveries.
The backward rolling pattern that emerged speaks volumes about market
psychology. Traders are rolling contracts
from March back to January and February for immediate
delivery rather than waiting. This is the opposite of normal market
behavior and signals urgent demand for immediate physical metal.
The Paper-to-Physical Ratio
The paper-to-physical ratio measures how many ounces of “paper silver”
(futures contracts, derivatives) exist for every ounce of physical
metal available for delivery. At its historical peak, this ratio
reached approximately 356:1, meaning 356 paper ounces
existed for every physical ounce in registered vaults.
Today, the
March 2026 futures contract
alone represents 528 million ounces of exposure
(105,683 contracts × 5,000 oz) against only 113 million ounces
of registered silver. That is more than 4x the deliverable supply
concentrated in a single contract month.
Catalyst Connection: This validates
Catalyst #2: COMEX Inventory Depletion Creating Delivery
Crisis
from
“Silver Rising.”
The ratios have now deteriorated far beyond what I described when
writing the book.
Deep Dive #3: The Stanford Breakthrough That Could Transform
Silver’s Future
What Happened
In Issue #4 (this issue is available free), I discussed Samsung’s
solid-state battery program
and its potential implications for silver demand. The Stanford
research published January 16 in
Nature Materials
takes this story significantly further.
Stanford researchers demonstrated that a nanoscale silver coating can
solve the cracking problem that has plagued solid-state batteries.
Silver-treated solid electrolyte surfaces become
5x more resistant to lithium intrusion damage,
achieved by heat-treating a mere 3-nanometer silver layer that allows
silver ions to replace lithium atoms 20-50 nanometers below the
surface.
Why This Matters
Current lithium-ion EVs use 25-50 grams of silver per
vehicle. Industry estimates suggest Samsung’s solid-state batteries
could require approximately
1 kilogram of silver per 100 kWh battery pack, based
on ~5 grams per cell across ~200 cells per pack. Samsung’s solid-state
battery program uses a silver-carbon (Ag-C) composite anode promising
600-mile range and 9-minute 80% charging. BMW is partnering with
Samsung for next-generation evaluation vehicles in late 2026.
Sources:
Batteries News,
Discovery Alert
The Demand Math
At 50% solid-state battery adoption, automotive silver demand alone
would exceed current total industrial demand. This is a potential
order-of-magnitude transformation in the demand
picture. The timeline remains uncertain (Toyota targets production
2027-2028), but the directional implications are extraordinary.
Why does it matter? If solid-state batteries achieve
even 20% EV market penetration by 2030, that’s 514 million ounces of
new annual demand, roughly equal to the current annual industrial
consumption. This isn’t a marginal increase. It’s a potential doubling
of industrial silver demand from a single application. The Stanford
research moves this from “interesting lab concept” to “engineering
problem being solved.”
Catalyst Connection: This validates
Catalyst #80: Solid-State Batteries Requiring Enhanced Silver
Content
from
“Silver Rising.”
Deep Dive #9: Sprott Doubles Down with $2 Billion
The Announcement
On January 20, 2026, Sprott Physical Silver Trust (PSLV) announced it
had updated its at-the-market equity program to issue up to
$2.0 billion of units, doubled from the $1 billion
announced December 11, 2025. Proceeds will fund physical silver
bullion acquisition.
Source:
Sprott Press Release, January 20, 2026
What This Signals
At current silver prices (~$110/oz), $2 billion could acquire
approximately 18 million ounces of physical silver.
This represents roughly 16% of current COMEX registered inventory.
Sprott is effectively signaling that institutional demand for
allocated physical silver justifies this scale of capital deployment.
ETF Flow Summary
The divergence is notable: SLV experienced profit-taking outflows
while PSLV and SIVR attracted capital. This may reflect investor
preference for funds perceived to have more direct physical backing.
Why does it matter? Sprott doubling its capital raise
capacity to $2 billion signals institutional conviction about physical
silver’s value proposition. At ~$110/oz, that’s approximately 18
million ounces of buying power, equivalent to 16% of COMEX registered
inventory. When institutions compete for physical metal at this scale,
they’re betting that paper claims will continue losing credibility
relative to allocated bullion. The divergence between SLV outflows and
PSLV/SIVR inflows suggests sophisticated investors are distinguishing
between types of silver exposure.
Catalyst Connection: This validates
Catalyst #52: SLV Inflows Exceed $2.5 Billion as Regional
Divergence Became Global Convergence
from
“Silver Rising.”
The ETF story has evolved from regional divergence to coordinated
global accumulation.
The Outlook
Silver has almost reached my $120 target from Issue
#5, with the January 26 intraday high of $117.75. After a move of this
magnitude, a decline or consolidation would be normal and healthy.
Markets don’t move in straight lines, and
profit-taking after a 290%+ year is to be expected.
That said, the
fundamental picture remains exceptional. The
structural deficit continues into its fifth year. China’s export
restrictions took effect January 1 and have not been reversed. COMEX
inventories keep falling. Physical premiums in Asia remain elevated.
The Fed independence crisis creates ongoing monetary uncertainty. And
the industrial demand story, from solar to EVs to AI to solid-state
batteries, keeps strengthening.
This is a once-in-a-generation opportunity in the silver market. The
convergence of supply constraints, industrial demand growth, and
monetary instability that I outlined in
“Silver Rising”
is playing out faster and more intensely than even the bullish
scenarios suggested. The full Issue #6 contains seven more Deep Dives
covering solar thrifting, the physical market fracture, India’s demand
surge, semiconductor capex, 5G infrastructure, space technology, and
the Fed crisis, plus the complete Catalyst Dashboard and institutional
price forecasts. If you want to understand where this market is headed
and stay informed as it unfolds, I encourage you to
get “Silver Rising” with complimentary 2-week access to the Silver
Catalyst newsletter.
Thank you.
Przemyslaw K. Radomski, CFA
Founder
Golden Meadow®
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