The FIRE and Bogleheads communities have a Selection Bias Issue.
What’s selection bias?
Selection bias is a systematic error occurring when data points are not randomly selected, making the sample unrepresentative of the target population. This creates distorted, unreliable conclusions because the analyzed group differs significantly from the population intended to be studied.
“Unreliable conclusions because the analyzed group [FIRE, Bogleheads] differs significantly from the population [everyone else].”
Why aren’t you green, too?!
We are a group of people who have self-selected to be DIYers. We love getting in the weeds and getting our finances right, down to the little details. I came from your ranks. I read those books and blogs too. I listen to that podcast. My portfolio looks like yours.
Naturally, we are going to be pro-DIY. We’d lean away from hiring a professional. That’s totally understandable.
The more we interact with people like us, the more we convince ourselves that everyone is this way. It is the “online echo chamber” effect, driven by confirmation bias, the false consensus effect, and conformity.
But we should be aware of Selection Bias (and the others I just mentioned) because it distorts our understanding of the world and, more importantly, how we communicate and help the rest of the population.
Do Other People Need Help Too?
I felt inspiration when I saw an online commentator say,
“The entire financial advice industry is a scam. Bar none. Literally every advisor, coach, planner, etc. is a scam. Just buy index funds and wait.
That’s the type of comment that comes from high confidence, low competence. We’ve all been there.
I came here to help people make better financial decisions. I want to help fellow FIRE folks and Bogleheads. And I want to help other people too.
What have I found interacting with hundreds of readers and listeners?
There’s a HUGE part of our population – our friends, family, colleagues, peers – who want nothing to do with FIRE, Bogleheading, DIYing, or any variation thereof.
They want best practices in their life and retirement, absolutely. But they do not want to navigate in the weeds like you and me.
I think there are two ways to respond to these people:
“You’re wrong. You say you don’t want to be a DIYer. But trust me. You do want it.”
Or…
“I get it. Some of us might enjoy DIYing our long-term finances, but that’s not for everybody.”
If someone wanted to hire a health coach to help them get in shape, would you tell them, “No – just keep white knuckling it. That’s what I did.”
Such advice assumes our experience is the only path. It ignores how tough the process can be for someone else. It comes off as “I struggled, so you should too,” rather than offering help that could make things easier or safer.
We need a reminder – sometimes our biases hurt our cause.
The conclusion here is simple:
We enjoy our shared path. But not everyone is like us.
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