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The market is doing exactly what strong trends do: rotating, not
breaking.
The dollar is cooling after a failed breakout, while metals are
pressing higher into fresh upside territory. This is not chaos.
It’s a clean, technical continuation with momentum on the
bulls’ side.
USD Index (DX.F): Bears Stepped in As Expected
Let’s open today’s Lab Note by revisiting
Friday’s Free Lab Note:
“(…) nextresistance areacreated by the upper border of the rising black channel, the 50%
retracement of the entire decline that started in late November and
the 78.6% retracement of the full December drop.
So far, bulls have tried twice to push through this zone and twice
sellers stepped in, especially around the 99.00 area, keeping price
capped.
At the same time, momentum indicators have moved into overbought
territory, increasing the risk of sell signals appearing soon. When
overbought conditions align with strong resistance, it often warns
that a short-term reversal and pullback may be close.
If sellers regain control and close the day under the upper line of
the channel, their first downside target will likely be the
previously broken area around 98.53. A clean break below that level
could expose 98.26, and potentially even a move toward the lower
border of the mentioned channel. (…)”
From today’s perspective, we can clearly see that the dollar
index
played out exactly as expected after Friday’s note. Price failed to hold above the previously broken resistance zone,
invalidating the earlier breakout, and rolled over
straight into our first downside target.
As you see on the above chart, momentum indicators remain firmly
bearish, which, in combination with the drop back below the previously
broken important zone, tells us one thing: Friday’s bearish
roadmap remains also valid today, and further downside pressure is
still on the table.
Gold (GC.F): Breakout Confirmed, Bulls Stay in Charge
Before we dive into the charts, let’s revisit Thursday’s
quote (Premium Lab Note #63):
“(…) Bullish scenario:
If buyers reclaim yesterday’s breakdown and push price back
above the lower border of the orange consolidation (marked on H4),
and that move is confirmed, the path toward a retest of
yesterday’s high and the 4518-4530 resistance zone (78.6%
Fibonacci + upper border of the green rising channel) will likely be
open. (…)”
On Friday (Premium Lab Note #65) , we added:
„Yesterday’s bullish roadmaps remain fully valid and
the upside target zones now matter a lot. This is where bulls must
prove strength: clean closes above the marked levels would open the
door for a renewed push toward the recent highs (or even
higher).”
From today’s point of view, we see that
gold did exactly what we outlined. Bulls stepped in,
pushed price cleanly above the resistance zone described on Thursday,
and unlocked the upside scenario.
As a result,
the yellow metal printed a new high, right on schedule. When we take a closer look at the charts, we see something even
more important… there are no sell signals coming from the
indicators at this stage, which keeps the bullish structure intact.
Therefore, further improvement should not surprise us. If this is the
case, here are the next upside levels to watch:
-
4662-4670 →127.2% Fibonacci extension + minimum measured move
from the rising wedge -
(…)
Further upside targets are covered in the Premium Lab Notes.
Silver (SI.F): Momentum Expansion After Consolidation (the complete silver analysis for today is reserved for
Premium Lab Notes).
Lab Takeaway for Today
This is a classic trend-continuation environment.
USD: the move is still corrective unless the dollar breaks above the
back channel.
Gold & Silver: bullish scenarios remain fully intact. Trends are
still bullish across short-, medium-, and long-term horizons.
Stay sharp, stay tactical.
Anna
P.S. If today’s Free Lab felt helpful, imagine working with the
full map instead of just one piece of it. Premium Lab Notes give you
the complete picture, the door is open whenever you’re
ready.
Premium Access: Anna’s Trading Lab
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