The new week is opening with a familiar theme: pressure is building,
but the market still isn’t moving in one clean line.
The dollar is once again showing technical weakness, while metals
are splitting into two camps: some continue to hold inside
consolidation, while others are now standing right at the edge of a
larger directional move, which makes today’s closing levels
especially important.
The U.S. Dollar Index (DX.F)
The first thing that stands out on the daily chart is Friday’s
black candle.
Not only did it erase the small bullish gap created at the start of
the day, but it also closed Thursday’s bullish gap and
together, with the preceding white candle, formed another bearish engulfing pattern.
That matters because a very similar candlestick formation marked the
beginning of the April selloff. When we add to this two more factors
(two bullish gaps have been neutralized and the earlier breakout
above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement has been invalidated) we see
that the technical picture turns noticeably weaker.
Today’s session only reinforced that view, with the dollar
extending lower and slipping back below 99, which increases the
probability of a renewed test of the key support zone at 97.56-97.82
in the coming days.
Key Levels to Watch:
Supports: 97.56-97.82
(green support zone) / 97.36
Resistances: 98.75-99.68 / 100
Gold (GC.F) & Silver (SI.F) → these sections are reserved for Premium readers today. And the timing is not random:
we’re sitting at technical zones that can shape not only
tomorrow’s session, but the entire week ahead.
Copper (HG.F)
Copper is showing one of the more interesting technical setups on
the board.
Friday’s bearish gap triggered yet another retest of the key
green support zone, but instead of breaking lower, that support
held, and today’s bullish gap immediately launched an attack
on the nearest key resistance.
That sequence created a classic bullish island reversal pattern on
the chart, which matters because island reversals often act as
short-term sentiment reset points (in practical terms, the nearest
support zone just got stronger, and bulls have gained another
technical argument).
Still, our last comment remains valid:
“(…) For bears, the condition is clear: no deeper
correction without a confirmed break of support.
For bulls:
no continuation without clearing resistance.
Therefore, until one side wins, price remains compressed and the
next breakout/breakdown will likely define the next meaningful
move. (…)”
Key Levels to Watch:
Supports: key green
support zone (599.05-600.35)
Resistances: 608.50-613.75 / 628 /
642.50
Platinum (PL.F)
Platinum continues to lean bearish.
Friday opened with a bearish gap (2011-2038)
that remains unfilled despite buyers’ attempts, which means
that area still acts as immediate resistance and that alone already
gives sellers an edge.
But there’s more… price also continues to trade below
the lower boundary of the green rising wedge, which means the
bearish scenario triggered by the breakdown under the formation
remains fully active.
Therefore, as long as bulls fail to close that gap and reclaim the
wedge, sellers retain control.
What does that imply? → → the rest of the analysis is available to Premium readers today.
Palladium (PA.F)
Palladium is sitting in a much more delicate balance.
Despite Friday’s bearish gap and a temporary drop below the
lower boundary of the orange consolidation, buyers managed to stage
a successful late-session counterattack, which invalidated the
earlier breakdown and fully closed the morning Asian gap.
This price action showed exactly where buyers are still willing to
defend.
However, the new week opened with another small bearish gap (1489-1509), and bulls have not been able to close it yet, which raises the
risk of another pressure test around the lower boundary of the
consolidation.
The line in the sand is clear: → the rest of the analysis is available to Premium readers today.
Today’s Takeaway
Dollar
Bullish scenario: reclaiming 99 and stabilizing above recent
resistance would slow bearish pressure.
Bearish scenario:
continued weakness below 99 keeps the path open toward
97.56-97.82.
Key takeaway: bearish engulfing + failed breakout
is not the combo bulls wanted to see.
Gold (…)
Silver (…)
Copper
Bullish scenario: island reversal supports another upside attempt if
bulls maintain momentum.
Bearish scenario: failure to follow
through keeps the broader range intact.
Key takeaway: strong
technical reaction but confirmation still needed.
Platinum (…)
Palladium (…)
Final Thought: the week is starting with
pressure in all the right places. Not every chart is ready to break
but several are getting uncomfortably close. Today’s closing price
may show the winner.
Stay patient, respect the levels, and let the market show its
hand.
Anna
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