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silver stocks issues market commentary from deVere.
This morning’s inflation numbers came in about where most
economists expected, and that alone was enough to keep stocks
from selling off.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer prices
jumped 0.9% in March from the prior month — the biggest
single-month move since 2022 — pushing the annual rate to
3.3%. Strip out food and energy and the picture is actually
calmer: core CPI rose just 0.2% for the month and 2.6%
year-over-year, both coming in a tick below what analysts had
penciled in.
None of this is a mystery. Oil prices ran past $100 a barrel
multiple times in March after the Strait of Hormuz effectively
shut down. Gas crossed $4 a gallon. Those costs hit household
budgets fast and they hit businesses just as hard through
transportation and logistics. The gap between headline and core
inflation this month is essentially the Iran war showing up in
the data.
How Markets Are Taking It
The Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq each opened up around 0.3%
after the report dropped. The market’s reaction says a lot
— investors had already braced for a bad number, so
meeting expectations passed as good news. The S&P 500 is now
on pace for eight straight winning sessions after weeks of
war-driven volatility.
The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting around 4.3%. Gold pulled
back a bit in early trading after three straight weeks of gains.
The Fed Isn’t Moving Anytime Soon
The Fed has a problem. Headline inflation at 3.3% gives them no
cover to cut rates, but core coming in soft means there’s no
real pressure to hike either. So they sit. Futures markets are
pricing roughly a 45% chance of at least one cut before year-end
— but that number moves up or down almost entirely based
on what happens with the ceasefire and oil.
The two-week ceasefire announced earlier this week knocked crude
back down near $98. If that holds and the Strait reopens, energy
prices ease, inflation cools, and the Fed gets room to act. If
it falls apart over the weekend, all of that goes the other way
fast.
Where Investors Are Looking
Energy stocks, gold, and anything commodity-linked have been the
obvious plays in this environment, and today’s data doesn’t
change that. Producers are still benefiting from elevated oil
prices even with the ceasefire pullback. Gold has had a strong
run with central banks buying steadily in the background, and
that demand doesn’t go away when geopolitical risk eases —
it just changes character.
For investors watching the broader market, the bigger question
now shifts to earnings. JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, Citigroup,
Goldman Sachs, and BlackRock all report next week. That’s when
we find out how much of this year’s turbulence actually showed
up in corporate results.
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