The past sessions brought exactly what we’ve been waiting for.
Follow-through, level-to-level movement and in some cases…
clean execution of previously outlined scenarios. In other words -
this wasn’t a guessing game – this was structure playing out.
And today, instead of chasing new ideas… we focus on what the
market is doing right now at key decision points.
The U.S. Dollar (DX.F)
We’ll begin today’s Free Lab Note with a quote from
April 9:
“(…) Nevertheless, we can’t ignore the bigger
picture.
A daily close below the rising channel has already activated a
broader bearish scenario – one that suggests a potential move
toward 98.00, where the measured move aligns with the height of
the channel and the 50% Fibonacci retracement. And this scenario
becomes even more likely if bulls lose control of the March 24
gap. (…)”
Looking at the chart today, we can clearly see that the bearish scenario we outlined last week has played out with the price reaching our downside
target.
However, what happened before is telling even more…
Despite a strong bullish gap at the yesterday’s open, buyers
failed to hold control. By the end of the session, not only the gap
was filled but additional support layers were lost: the 38.2%
Fibonacci retracement and the March 3rd pro bullish gap.
That was a clear sign of weakness, which pushed the dollar lower
into the next support zone created by the 50% Fibonacci retracement
and the green gap from March 2nd (the above-mentioned downside
target) earlier today.
At first glance, this area may look supportive, however,
here’s the problem – a very similar structure failed just
yesterday! Therefore, with no confirmed buy signals on daily
indicators, the burden of proof is still on the bulls.
Outlook
Bearish scenario: a breakdown below the current
support zone opens the door toward: 97.23 (61.8% Fibonacci
retracement) / 96.82-97.00 (February 17 gap)
Bullish scenario: a daily close above 97.77 would stabilize the situation and open
the door for a move toward the April 8 bearish gap
Key takeaway: this is a decision zone – no need to guess – just wait for
the close.
Gold (GC.F) & Silver (SI.F) these sections are reserved for Premium readers today.
Having said that, now let’s talk about what was actually
delivered…
Copper (HG.F) : Highlight of the Day
Before diving in, let’s revisit the quote from April
1st:
“(…) Right above current levels sits the upper
boundary of a declining wedge, and that’s the real
test.
Why?
Because breaking out of this wedge wouldn’t just confirm
continuation – it could open the door toward a much larger move,
potentially even toward the 78.6% retracement of the entire
decline or higher (depending on the breakout point).
Today’s session adds another piece to the puzzle.
Price pulled back slightly and is now testing the upper boundary
of the consolidation that was broken yesterday and this is exactly
what you want to see.
(…) The breakout above consolidation is a positive signal
but the real test is still ahead. As long as price remains above 558 = breakout remains valid, upside
toward ~595 in play. (…)”
Looking at the daily chart, we see that the breakout we discussed
played out, and bulls reached our first upside target (huge congratulations to everyone who stayed with the bullish
scenario and captured the move). That’s exactly how structured trading should look.
What happened?
- initial hesitation
- consolidation near resistance
- breakout → acceleration
What’s next? → the rest of the analysis is available to Premium readers today.
Today’s Takeaway
Let’s keep this simple and actionable…
Dollar: wait for confirmation and do not trade
without a daily close signal.
Gold: (…)
Silver: (…)
Copper: trend already delivered -(…)
Final Thought: this is one of those moments where
the market already did the hard work. Now your job is to react
correctly.
Stay patient, stay selective and let the market confirm before you
commit.
Anna
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