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issues UK market commentary from deVere Group.
Donald Trump leaves Beijing declaring success after two days of
high-level talks with Xi Jinping, but the absence of concrete detail
from the summit between the leaders of the world’s two largest
economies is where investors should focus their attention, according
to Nigel Green, CEO of
deVere Group.
“The headlines sound reassuring, but the substance underneath them
remains remarkably thin.
“Markets heard promises of stronger ties, major purchases and
stabilised relations. What they did NOT hear was, perhaps, far more
important.”
Trump claimed China would buy 200 Boeing aircraft, alongside
significant increases in purchases of US agricultural goods and
energy exports. Yet no formal agreement has been released publicly
by Beijing, no timetable has emerged, and no financial framework has
been disclosed.
“Global investors are being asked to price optimism without
documentation,” notes the deVere CEO.
“Aviation orders, agricultural commitments, and trade pledges only
matter if there’s enforceable detail attached to them. Right now,
there’s very little of that.”
US-China trade exceeded $575 billion last year despite years of
tariffs, export controls and strategic hostility.
China remains central to global manufacturing supply chains, while
the US remains one of China’s most important export destinations.
Financial markets have been desperate for signs that tensions
between Washington and Beijing are easing in a meaningful way.
Nigel Green argues the summit delivered optics rather than
resolution.
“Unfortunately, there was no serious public breakthrough on tariffs,
semiconductors, export controls, rare earth minerals or industrial
subsidies,” he says.
“Those are the core disputes shaping the economic relationship. None
of them disappeared because the language between the two leaders
softened.”
Rare earths remain among the most strategically sensitive issues.
China controls roughly 70% of global rare earth production and close
to 90% of processing capacity. Those materials are essential for
semiconductors, EVs, military systems, aerospace manufacturing and
advanced tech infrastructure.
Yet despite months of pressure from US industry groups and mounting
concern over supply-chain vulnerabilities, the summit produced no
detailed framework around future access or export guarantees.
“Rare earths sit at the centre of the global industrial race,”
explains Nigel Green. “Washington wanted stability. Markets wanted
visibility. Neither emerged from Beijing.”
Semiconductors represent another major silence.
The US continues restrictions on advanced AI chip exports to China,
while Beijing accelerates efforts to build domestic alternatives and
reduce reliance on American tech.
The deVere chief executive says the omission carries enormous
implications for investors globally.
“AI has become one of the most powerful investment themes in the
world economy,” he says.
“But the infrastructure behind AI is increasingly shaped by
geopolitical confrontation. The summit offered no indication that
either side is prepared to retreat.”
Taiwan also remained unresolved beneath the diplomatic theatre.
Xi Jinping reportedly reiterated Beijing’s hardline position during
private discussions, while Trump avoided major public escalation.
Markets interpreted the restraint positively, but Nigel Green warns
the underlying tensions remain acute.
“Taiwan is one of the single biggest geopolitical risk factors
facing global markets. Any deterioration would instantly hit
semiconductors, shipping routes, defence spending, commodity prices
and global equities.”
The summit also failed to produce meaningful clarity around the
future of tariffs imposed during the original US-China trade war.
Average US tariffs on many Chinese goods remain significantly above
pre-2018 levels, while Beijing has maintained retaliatory measures
across multiple sectors. Global manufacturers have spent years
restructuring supply chains around the uncertainty.
Nigel Green says businesses were hoping for a clearer direction.
“Corporate leaders wanted evidence of a longer-term framework for
economic engagement,” he says.
“Instead, they received broad political language designed to calm
sentiment without addressing the structural fractures underneath.”
He also points to the contradictions inside the economic
announcements themselves.
US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer spoke about large future
agricultural purchases from China, while Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent suggested some key commodity arrangements had already
effectively been settled under earlier agreements.
“Mixed messaging creates more uncertainty, not less,” concludes
Nigel Green.
“Washington and Beijing may have lowered the temperature publicly,
but the unresolved economic conflict beneath the surface remains
very much alive.”
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