(www.investorideas.com
Newswire) a go-to platform for big investing ideas, including gold and
silver stocks issues market commentary from deVere Group.
Gold has taken a huge hit since the outbreak of the Iran war, but
any clear signs of de-escalation are likely to trigger a sharp
rebound, potentially driving prices to new record highs, says the
CEO of one of the world’s largest independent financial
advisory organisations.
Nigel Green from deVere Group is speaking out as gold slides through
one of its sharpest short-term sell-offs in years, dropping to
around $4,600 an ounce and retreating more than 10% from its recent
highs above $5,500.
He says: “Prices have come off sharply from recent highs as
energy markets push inflation expectations higher and delay the
path to rate cuts. Gold, a non-yielding asset, is reacting to that
shift in the short term.”
But Nigel Green also points to what he describes as relentless
sovereign demand underpinning the next move higher.
Central banks have bought more than 1,000 tonnes of gold annually
for three consecutive years, including roughly 1,045 tonnes in 2025,
marking the strongest sustained accumulation since the 1960s.
“Central banks, including the People’s Bank of China
and the National Bank of Poland, have been buying at a pace we
have not seen in decades. This is long-term strategic allocation
on a global scale.”
Reporting shows more than 20 central banks increased their gold
holdings over the past year, reinforcing a broad and coordinated
shift in reserve strategy.
Emerging economies in particular are building gold positions to
reduce reliance on the dollar and strengthen financial
resilience,” says the deVere CEO.
“De-dollarization is happening gradually through reserve
diversification. Gold is central to that process because it
carries no counterparty risk and no political conditions.”
Survey data shows that around three-quarters of central banks expect
gold to account for a larger share of reserves over the next five
years, underlining how entrenched this trend has become.
Nigel Green says: “The dollar remains dominant, but its
share is edging lower, while gold’s share is rising. This
rebalancing is one of the defining trends in global
finance.”
He argues that this dynamic is creating a strong structural floor
beneath the market, even as geopolitical pressures weigh on prices
in the near term.
He says: “Before the Iran war, central banks were
accumulating and holding. This, we expect, will resume as soon as
there are legitimate signs of de-escalation. This will, again,
remove supply from the market and strengthen long-term
support.”
Institutional and private demand is also building. Analysts expect
combined central bank and investor demand to average around 585
tonnes per quarter through 2026, reinforcing the underlying strength
of the market.
Nigel Green says: “There is a significant backlog of demand
across sovereign and institutional buyers.
“As soon as macro pressure eases, that demand will reassert
itself quickly.”
He adds: “Gold has already surged to record levels above
$5,000 in recent months. The rally has been driven by
fundamentals, not speculation, and those fundamentals remain
intact.”
He warns against misreading the current pullback.
He says: “Short-term weakness linked to geopolitical tension
and inflation expectations doesn’t change the trajectory. It
reflects positioning, not direction.”
He continues: “As tensions linked to Iran begin to ease and
markets stabilise, capital will rotate back into gold rapidly. The
scale of central bank buying means the upside move could be
sharp.”
Gold’s performance since the Iran war broke out closely
mirrors what we saw in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine. That conflict triggered a major energy shock that fed
through global markets and pushed inflation higher.
“Bullion then entered a prolonged period of decline, falling
for seven consecutive months through to October, the longest
losing streak on record. The same macro forces are now back in
play.”
Nigel Green concludes: “Fresh all-time highs are well within
reach in the near term. The structural drivers are stronger than
at any point in decades.
“Many emerging countries are rebuilding reserves with gold
at the centre. As reliance on the dollar gradually declines and
geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated, gold’s role only
becomes more important.
“Once the immediate geopolitical pressures in the Middle
East fade, the next move higher is likely to be bullish, fast and
decisive for gold prices.”
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