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silver stocks issues a news and trading alert for the sector.
Gold is sitting around $4,750 an ounce heading into the weekend, and
this morning’s inflation numbers gave buyers little reason to walk
away.
March CPI came in at 3.3% year-over-year, the biggest monthly jump
since 2022. Most of it was energy. Gas crossed $4 a gallon last
month, and that fed straight into the headline number. Core
inflation, which strips out food and energy, came in a bit softer
than expected at 2.6% annually. For gold investors the headline
number is what counts, and 3.3% keeps the inflation trade alive.
Where Gold Stands Right Now
Gold has had three straight weeks of gains after getting knocked
around badly when the Iran war started in late February. At its
worst, the metal dropped over 13% from its all-time high above
$5,500 as oil spiked and traders started pricing in rate hikes.
That’s a rough stretch for any asset.
The ceasefire announced Wednesday brought some relief to markets
broadly, which actually pulled gold off its recent highs as money
rotated back into equities. But the Strait of Hormuz is still not
fully open. Ships aren’t moving through normally yet, and weekend
diplomatic talks in Islamabad between U.S. Vice President JD Vance
and Iranian officials could go either way. Until there’s a real
resolution on the strait, the geopolitical floor under gold stays in
place.
Central Banks Aren’t Backing Off
One thing that hasn’t changed through all the volatility is central
bank demand. Global gold ETFs picked up 21 tonnes of net inflows in
just the first few days of April, according to the World Gold
Council. What’s notable is that buying came in while markets were
actually calming down, not during a panic spike. Demand that builds
during quieter periods tends to be more durable than fear-driven
buying that reverses once sentiment shifts.
The broader trend goes back further. Central banks have been
aggressively adding gold reserves for years now, with the U.S.
dollar’s share of global FX reserves falling to its lowest level
since 1994 while gold’s share has climbed to its highest since 1991.
That’s not a short-term trade; it’s a structural shift in how
reserve managers are thinking about their portfolios.
What the Banks Are Saying
J.P. Morgan has a year-end price target of $5,000 per ounce, with
some analysts at the firm calling $6,000 a possibility on a longer
timeline. Their outlook is underpinned by continued strong central
bank and investor demand averaging around 585 tonnes per quarter in
2026.
Goldman Sachs is focused on the Strait of Hormuz. Their view is
straightforward: if the strait stays closed another month, Brent
crude stays above $100, inflation stays elevated, and that’s the
environment where gold performs. They see risks to their oil price
forecast skewed to the upside as long as the ceasefire remains
fragile.
Silver Moving Too
Gold isn’t the only metal worth watching. Silver is trading around
$75.89 an ounce, also up on the week. Silver tends to move more
sharply than gold in both directions since it carries more
industrial demand exposure alongside its safe-haven properties. The
gold-to-silver ratio is sitting around 63:1 right now, which some
precious metals investors watch as a signal for relative value
between the two.
The Fed Factor
The Fed isn’t cutting rates in April, that much is certain. Markets
are pricing roughly 45% odds of at least one cut before year-end,
but that number is almost entirely tied to what happens with energy
prices over the next few months. If the ceasefire holds, the strait
reopens, and oil pulls back, inflation cools and rate cut odds
improve. That scenario would create some short-term headwinds for
gold but would likely be positive for equities and risk assets
broadly.
If the talks break down over the weekend and the conflict flares
back up, oil goes higher, inflation stays sticky, and the Fed stays
frozen. In that environment gold likely sees renewed buying
interest, particularly from investors looking for something that
holds value while everything else reprices.
Either way, gold is not going to have a quiet few weeks. The
variables are real and they’re moving fast.
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